5303 Weslayan St

Houston, TX 77005

$765,000D

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,867 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,765/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,012
• Tax + insurance: −$1,595
• HOA: −$160
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,421
• Net cashflow: $-422/mo
• Annual: $-5,068/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $214,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $765k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $690k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $677k (11.6% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $677k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West University El (math 83% / reading 87%, grade A+, #9 of 4,322 statewide, top 0%, 1,114 students, 6% FRL); Pershing Middle (math 36% / reading 49%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 1,390 students, 60% FRL); Lamar H S (math 38% / reading 65%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 3,125 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 71% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+29 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Houston ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($229k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.