4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
4,432 sqft ·
Built 1940
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 24 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$7,898/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,714
Tax + insurance
−$539
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,659
Net cashflow
$986/mo
Annual
$11,837/yr
Cap rate
7.61%
Cash-on-cash
4.70%
DSCR
1.21
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$251,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $899k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $986 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $790k (12.1% below list).
It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($886k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $790k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
Current owner paid $390k; list at $899k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At $7,898/mo this rent would consume 116% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 978% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-377V27CPJNVS53
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29