2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,550 sqft ·
Built 1963
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 13 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,010/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$249
Tax + insurance
−$183
HOA
−$200
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$422
Net cashflow
$955/mo
Annual
$11,463/yr
Cap rate
30.43%
Cash-on-cash
86.19%
DSCR
4.83
1% rule
4.23%
Cash to close
$13,300
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $48k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $955 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $328 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Sam Houston Collegiate Preparatory El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 469 students, 64% FRL, charter); San Jacinto J H (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 829 students, 54% FRL); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 30.4% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-37V6BBDZFHFEY0
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29