18151 NE 31st Ct #205

Aventura, FL 33160

$196,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,718/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax + insurance: −$346
• HOA: −$793
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-233/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $54,880

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $196k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-233/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (1.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $196k).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#127 in FL, #1,834 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, commute A; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aventura Waterways K-8 Center (math 56% / reading 65%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 2,168 students, 32% FRL); Highland Oaks Middle School (math 28% / reading 51%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 774 students, 50% FRL); Dr. Michael M. Krop Senior High (math 21% / reading 46%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 2,235 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 64% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2152 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 16 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 10789% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.8% in Aventura — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,718/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 17% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?