308 Water St

Falcon Mesa, TX 78076

$45,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 336 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 250 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$155
• Net cashflow: $285/mo
• Annual: $3,418/yr
• Cap rate: 13.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.12%
• DSCR: 2.21
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($738 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#1,652 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Zapata North El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 581 students, 91% FRL); Zapata Middle (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 784 students, 83% FRL); Zapata H S (math 25% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,034 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 70% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.