1480 Atkin Hill Rd

Holtville, AL 36092

$115,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,579 sqft · Built 1940 · Other · Pending · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,344/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $267/mo
• Annual: $3,207/yr
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.96%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#155 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $115k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.1% in Holtville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.