8500 E Indian School Rd #239

Scottsdale, AZ 85251

$203,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 778 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,679/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,065
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$296
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-172/mo
• Annual: $-2,065/yr
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $56,840

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $203k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (17.3% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Mohave Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #43 of 218 statewide, top 20%, 799 students, 31% FRL); Saguaro High School (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #78 of 381 statewide, top 20%, 1,466 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 584 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $203k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?