22 Archer Dr

Monroe, NY 10950

$295,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,981/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$867
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-708/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-708/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (3.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $285k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#351 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Main Street School (math 39% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,356 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 532 students, 48% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury Middle School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,584 students, 40% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #56 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 2,353 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 15% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 322 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $295k implies a 638% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Monroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,981/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 3149% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.