141 Tallow Wood Dr

Clifton Gardens, NY 12065

$230,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$372
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-244/mo
• Annual: $-2,932/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.55%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shenendehowa Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #98 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shenendehowa High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 3,036 students, 21% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 90% at this address vs 72% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Shenendehowa Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Clifton Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.