5509 County Road 36

Honeoye, NY 14471

$450,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,372 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,343/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$556
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-1,854/mo
• Annual: $-22,252/yr
• Cap rate: 1.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.66%
• DSCR: 0.21
• 1% rule: 0.30%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (72.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (70.2% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (72.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#790 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Honeoye Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #327 of 590 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $450k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 0.8% in Honeoye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.