449 Mountain Vw

Bandera, TX 78003

$165,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Pending · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$6
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $354/mo
• Annual: $4,249/yr
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#209 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, commute F, employment D-.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 1.4% in Bandera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.