3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,755 sqft ·
Built 1955
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,954/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,652
Tax + insurance
−$950
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$830
Net cashflow
$521/mo
Annual
$6,254/yr
Cap rate
9.90%
Cash-on-cash
12.89%
DSCR
1.57
1% rule
1.26%
Cash to close
$88,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
13 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,954/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 509% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-39XD8XA4SXBZ6F
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29