100 Buren Rd

Ketchikan, AK 99901

$159,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $955/mo
• Annual: $11,462/yr
• Cap rate: 13.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.75%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $955 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AK, #3,743 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.7% in Ketchikan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.