19506 Little Manatee St

Biloxi, MS 39532

$314,999D-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,896/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-476/mo
• Annual: $-5,715/yr
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-476 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (39.8% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in MS, #2,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, employment D-.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Biloxi — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.