233 Grist Mill Rd

Dublin, PA 17215

$135,000C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,350 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $87/mo
• Annual: $1,044/yr
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.76%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (5.5% below list).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,201 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Forbes Road SD (rural): math 70% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #109 of 658 in PA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $135k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.