138 Lancaster St

Albany, NY 12210

$435,000A-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,511 sqft · Built 1861 · MultiFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$872
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,848
• Net cashflow: $3,798/mo
• Annual: $45,580/yr
• Cap rate: 16.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.42%
• DSCR: 2.67
• 1% rule: 2.02%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $435k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($46k/yr) — positive. Per door: $950/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $435k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $383k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#129 in NY, #2,083 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Albany City School District (urban): math 37% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #543 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1861 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $367k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $122k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 6.0% in Albany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,200/mo per unit this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1861 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen backsplash — Worn and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures, could be updated for a fresh look
• Moderate: Exterior paint — Some discoloration, could benefit from a fresh coat
• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrowth, could be trimmed and pruned