1 Nekquelekin 457-A

Manson, WA 98831

$3,700D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 981 sqft · Built 1990 · Timeshare · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19
• Tax + insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$342
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $655/mo
• Annual: $7,866/yr
• Cap rate: 218.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 759.24%
• DSCR: 34.78
• 1% rule: 35.00%
• Cash to close: $1,036

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $4k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $4k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $26 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $111 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#421 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, employment D.
• Manson School District (town): math 42% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #211 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Manson Elementary (257 students, 66% FRL); Manson Middle School (135 students, 71% FRL); Manson High School (223 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 69% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1k; list at $4k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 218.9% vs local median 3.3% in Manson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.