7 Ellsworth St St

Philmont, NY 12565

$420,000A-

24 bd · 16.0 ba · 3,945 sqft · Built 1984 · MultiFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,530/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$700
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,581
• Net cashflow: $3,046/mo
• Annual: $36,554/yr
• Cap rate: 15.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.08%
• DSCR: 2.38
• 1% rule: 1.79%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 3×1bd/1ba + 1×3bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $420k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($37k/yr) — positive. Per door: $762/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $420k).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $382k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#958 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are outdated and may need replacement or updating.
• Moderate: Kitchen appliances — The appliances are outdated and may need replacement or updating.
• Moderate: Exterior siding — The siding shows signs of wear and tear and may need repainting or replacement.
• Minor: Landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and could benefit from trimming and maintenance.