2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
840 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 70 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$853/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$233
Tax + insurance
−$74
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$179
Net cashflow
$366/mo
Annual
$4,398/yr
Cap rate
16.18%
Cash-on-cash
35.30%
DSCR
2.57
1% rule
1.92%
Cash to close
$12,460
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($853 rent vs $44k).
It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($308 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#295 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Simpson County School District (rural): math 18% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #90 of 130 in MS (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Simpson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Simpson County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3BQV4M46HETYTD
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29