3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,327 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,411/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,284
Tax + insurance
−$186
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$506
Net cashflow
$434/mo
Annual
$5,212/yr
Cap rate
8.42%
Cash-on-cash
7.60%
DSCR
1.34
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$68,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (1.5% below list).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Bay St Louis Waveland School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #21 of 130 in MS (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 601 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.8% in Bay St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3C0Z6YA7BBW9JC
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29