3 Sachem Ln

East Quogue, NY 11942

$2,895,000C-

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,288 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $31,573/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,182
• Tax + insurance: −$2,517
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,630
• Net cashflow: $7,243/mo
• Annual: $86,920/yr
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.72%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $810,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.90M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($87k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($32k rent vs $2.90M).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.85M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.85M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $20k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $87k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2.40M; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.