2025 S 11th St #1

Port Aransas, TX 78373

$209,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 754 sqft · Built 1972 · Townhouse · Active · 237 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$781
• HOA: −$192
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-331/mo
• Annual: $-3,967/yr
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (27.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#525 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, schools A-; Watch: commute C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Port Aransas ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #68 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 1024 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $209k implies a 335% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.1% in Port Aransas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?