10024 S Hill Rd

Kenbridge, VA 23944

$165,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,910 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,225/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-128/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-128/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (25.8% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $122k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#368 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lunenburg County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #110 of 131 in VA (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kenbridge Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 370 students, 101% FRL); Lunenburg Middle (math 23% / reading 63%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 332 students, 98% FRL); Central High (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 495 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 60% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Lunenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lunenburg County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.