614 Cumberland Rd

San Antonio, TX 78204

$155,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,597 sqft · Built 1928 · SingleFamily · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,714/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $283/mo
• Annual: $3,396/yr
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.83%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Collins Garden El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 426 students, 95% FRL); Harris Middle (math 11% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,520 of 1,662 statewide, top 92%, 762 students, 94% FRL, charter); Burbank H S (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,522 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,319 students, 90% FRL, charter).
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.