2013 Deerfield Dr

Ashtabula, OH 44004

$289,900C

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,749/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$460
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$787
• Net cashflow: $981/mo
• Annual: $11,773/yr
• Cap rate: 10.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.50%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $981 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $290k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Superior Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,151 of 1,584 statewide, top 73%, 436 students, 0% FRL); Lakeside Junior High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #579 of 654 statewide, top 89%, 505 students, 0% FRL); Lakeside High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #644 of 781 statewide, top 85%, 894 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 63% district-wide (63 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 8.3% in Ashtabula — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $3,749/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.