23503 Briarcreek Blvd

Spring, TX 77373

$200,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,478 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 262 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,384/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$720
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $115/mo
• Annual: $1,382/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.47%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.