7 bd · 5.0 ba ·
3,266 sqft ·
Built 1985
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,689/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,071
Tax + insurance
−$574
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$775
Net cashflow
$269/mo
Annual
$3,231/yr
Cap rate
7.11%
Cash-on-cash
2.92%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$110,600
Investor read
This is a 2×2.0bd/1.5ba + 1×3.0bd/2.0ba units multifamily listed at $395k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $90/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $369k (6.6% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $369k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#243 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D+, crime F.
Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Burroughs High (math 37% / reading 70%, grade C-, #281 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 1,479 students, 40% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sierra Sands Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 328 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Ridgecrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,689/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 975% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3DNK76EB957HQP
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29