728 Lincoln St

Hobson City, AL 36201

$18,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 779 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $875/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax + insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $573/mo
• Annual: $6,871/yr
• Cap rate: 44.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 136.32%
• DSCR: 7.07
• 1% rule: 4.86%
• Cash to close: $5,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($875 rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $17k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $540 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#170 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime D-.
• Oxford City (urban): math 27% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #22 of 129 in AL (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 135 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calhoun County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.