508 E Lionshead #312

Vail, CO 81657

$30,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 506 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$219
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $1,466/mo
• Annual: $17,591/yr
• Cap rate: 64.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 209.42%
• DSCR: 10.32
• 1% rule: 7.98%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#76 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Eagle County School District No. RE-50 (town): math 22% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #39 of 86 in CO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 387 units permitted in Eagle County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eagle County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $30k implies a 567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 64.9% vs local median 0.5% in Vail — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?