156 Brookside Ave

Freeport, NY 11575

$470,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,457 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 194 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,933/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax + insurance: −$1,231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$826
• Net cashflow: $-589/mo
• Annual: $-7,072/yr
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $131,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-589 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $393k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $366k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#69 in NY, #1,033 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Baldwin Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #93 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Baldwin Middle School (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #212 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 1,027 students, 45% FRL); Baldwin Senior High School (math 95% / reading 92%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,484 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 14% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $470k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?