402 E Robinson Ave

Grovetown, GA 30813

$169,900C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Built 1971 · Other · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,682/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $237/mo
• Annual: $2,844/yr
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (1.0% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#57 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grovetown Elementary School (math 39% / reading 31%, grade F, #523 of 1,228 statewide, top 43%, 979 students, 56% FRL); Grovetown Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #234 of 470 statewide, top 50%, 1,080 students, 49% FRL); Grovetown High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 2,236 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $170k implies a 828% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.6% in Grovetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.