Mystique Grand Plan

On Top of the World, FL 34481

$430,990F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,748 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 528 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,496/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,528
• Tax + insurance: −$803
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $-569/mo
• Annual: $-6,830/yr
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $134,961

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $431k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-569 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $400k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 528 days — a 12% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $350k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Saddlewood Elementary School (math 62% / reading 54%, grade C+, #751 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 917 students, 58% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 1,365 students, 54% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1367 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.8% in On Top of the World — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,496/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 528 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.