335 Miller Rd

Claverack-Red Mills, NY 12534

$595,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax + insurance: −$992
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-2,018/mo
• Annual: $-24,219/yr
• Cap rate: 2.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.54%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $166,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $595k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (49.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (55.5% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($586k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (55.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Taconic Hills Elementary School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C-, #1,041 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 562 students, 57% FRL); Taconic Hillsjunior/Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 502 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$102k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.9% in Claverack-Red Mills — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.