3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,612 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,308/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$319
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$275
Net cashflow
$-19/mo
Annual
$-224/yr
Cap rate
6.13%
Cash-on-cash
-0.57%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$39,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-224/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (2.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (6.5% below list).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $131k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#470 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
Jamestown City School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #553 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Abraham Lincoln Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 377 students, 63% FRL); Persell Middle School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #539 of 729 statewide, top 74%, 417 students, 73% FRL); Jamestown High School (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 1,315 students, 80% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jamestown City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 317 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $68k; list at $140k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 16.6% in Jamestown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3F6E9441Q5VAV4
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29