2 Mill St

Marathon, NY 13803

$29,900C-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,660 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Pending · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,281/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $750/mo
• Annual: $8,999/yr
• Cap rate: 38.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.45%
• DSCR: 6.14
• 1% rule: 4.28%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#853 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, health & safety D.
• Marathon Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #437 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (46%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (9.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.