6258 S Nash Way

Chandler, AZ 85249

$389,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,703/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$43
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-248/mo
• Annual: $-2,974/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (30.7% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Knox Gifted Academy (math 90% / reading 97%, grade A+, #1 of 1,109 statewide, top 0%, 672 students, 6% FRL); Santan Junior High School (math 46% / reading 56%, grade C, #23 of 218 statewide, top 11%, 1,234 students, 13% FRL); Arizona College Prep High School (math 91% / reading 83%, grade A, #2 of 381 statewide, top 0%, 1,775 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools average 9% FRL vs 25% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 298 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $390k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.