11921 Villa Dorado Dr Unit A

Maryland Heights, MO 63146

$130,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Built 1969 · Condo · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,091/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$493
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $306/mo
• Annual: $3,675/yr
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.10%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Craig Elem. (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 389 students, 17% FRL); Northeast Middle (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #185 of 391 statewide, top 48%, 703 students, 24% FRL); North High (math 35% / reading 70%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,074 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $101k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.2% in Maryland Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.