4 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,400 sqft ·
Built 2000
· Timeshare
· Active
· 99 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,894/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$317
HOA
−$1,302
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,028
Net cashflow
$1,251/mo
Annual
$15,017/yr
Cap rate
14.20%
Cash-on-cash
28.23%
DSCR
2.26
1% rule
2.58%
Cash to close
$53,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath timeshare listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $190k).
It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3G049C8BVXYG8Y
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29