119 River Birch Ln

Hardeeville, SC 29927

$293,215C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,965 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,814/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,538
• Tax + insurance: −$915
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-229/mo
• Annual: $-2,753/yr
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $82,100

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $293k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (4.0% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $260k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#136 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jasper 01 (rural): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #77 of 80 in SC (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hardeeville Elementary (math 9% / reading 13%, grade F, #581 of 597 statewide, top 97%, 610 students, 100% FRL); Hardeeville-Ridgeland Middle (math 8% / reading 17%); Ridgeland Secondary Academy of Excellence (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #183 of 196 statewide, top 94%, 639 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 78% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,385 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.6% in Hardeeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,814/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 337% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.