The Birch Plan

Bluffton, SC 29910

$442,900D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,434 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 254 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,184/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,420
• Tax + insurance: −$769
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $-674/mo
• Annual: $-8,089/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.26%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $129,233

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $443k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-674 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (28.1% below list).
• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($390k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $318k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#76 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Beaufort 01 (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #17 of 80 in SC (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pritchardville Elementary (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #109 of 597 statewide, top 19%, 1,005 students, 24% FRL); Bluffton Middle (math 40% / reading 46%, grade D-, #60 of 229 statewide, top 26%, 872 students, 45% FRL); Bluffton High (math 69% / reading 85%, grade A-, #28 of 196 statewide, top 16%, 1,350 students, 38% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Beaufort 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 1230 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,824 units permitted in Beaufort County in 2024 (618 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Beaufort County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Bluffton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.