4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,891 sqft ·
Built 1942
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 152 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,765/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$424
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$371
Net cashflow
$263/mo
Annual
$3,155/yr
Cap rate
9.22%
Cash-on-cash
10.46%
DSCR
1.47
1% rule
1.31%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,205 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 590 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $14k; list at $135k implies a 878% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.8% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-3GS8W25767Z8QC
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29