3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,048 sqft ·
Built 1997
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 52 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,881/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$113
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$395
Net cashflow
$534/mo
Annual
$6,412/yr
Cap rate
10.30%
Cash-on-cash
14.31%
DSCR
1.64
1% rule
1.18%
Cash to close
$44,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#297 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Lee County (rural): math 23% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #40 of 129 in AL (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: South Smiths Station Elementary School (math 38% / reading 60%, grade D, #132 of 627 statewide, top 21%, 645 students, 61% FRL); Smiths Station Junior High School (math 16% / reading 49%, grade F, #105 of 257 statewide, top 42%, 934 students, 57% FRL); Smiths Station High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #159 of 305 statewide, top 53%, 1,286 students, 49% FRL).
Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,858 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (113 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +54% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.9% in Phenix City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3H5ZRN7QHRJ7H6
· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29