6126 Hickory Lane Dr

Union City, GA 30291

$246,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,809 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax + insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $28/mo
• Annual: $336/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $68,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $246k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($336/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (16.2% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#443 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gullatt Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #996 of 1,228 statewide, top 83%, 747 students, 100% FRL); Bear Creek Middle School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #339 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 1,108 students, 100% FRL); Creekside High School (math 30% / reading 24%, grade F, #160 of 424 statewide, top 38%, 1,768 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 41% district-wide (59 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-30 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,061/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1778% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.