HOLCOMBE Plan

Joliet, IL 60586

$441,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,356 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 769 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,376/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,687
• Tax + insurance: −$854
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-873/mo
• Annual: $-10,477/yr
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.30%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $143,444

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $442k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-873 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 769 days — a 12% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $338k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#153 in IL, #2,772 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-.
• Plainfield SD 202 (suburban): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #213 of 620 in IL (top 34%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elem Sch (math 18% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,116 of 2,056 statewide, top 55%, 579 students, 0% FRL); Aux Sable Middle Sch (math 18% / reading 32%, grade F, #327 of 665 statewide, top 50%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Plainfield South High School (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #312 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,411 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 17% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 769 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.