395 S 15th St

Newark, NJ 07103

$525,000C-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$875
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,060
• Net cashflow: $360/mo
• Annual: $4,317/yr
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.94%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $525k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $180/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $505k (3.8% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $505k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: housing D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Newark Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #452 of 472 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ann Street School (math 13% / reading 34%, grade F, #921 of 1,303 statewide, top 71%, 1,200 students, 78% FRL); East Side High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #357 of 399 statewide, top 90%, 2,255 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 77% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 59 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Newark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,048/mo this rent would consume 118% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 2963% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.