618 Hickory St

Levelland, TX 79336

$199,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,208/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$543
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-632/mo
• Annual: $-7,579/yr
• Cap rate: 2.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.60%
• DSCR: 0.39
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-632 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (44.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (39.3% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $110k (44.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#274 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Levelland ISD (town): math 33% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #566 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Capitol El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 297 students, 76% FRL); Levelland Middle (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 622 students, 79% FRL); Levelland H S (math 67% / reading 55%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 745 students, 67% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Hockley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hockley County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.