3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,599 sqft ·
Built 1827
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 110 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,101/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$362
Tax + insurance
−$253
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$441
Net cashflow
$1,045/mo
Annual
$12,540/yr
Cap rate
25.43%
Cash-on-cash
68.35%
DSCR
4.04
1% rule
3.05%
Cash to close
$19,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $69k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fitzhugh Park Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 368 students, 70% FRL); Oswego Middle School (math 23% / reading 49%, grade F, #469 of 729 statewide, top 65%, 566 students, 53% FRL); Oswego High School (math 87% / reading 79%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,069 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 36% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1827 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $43k; list at $69k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 25.4% vs local median 8.9% in Oswego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1827 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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