233 Olmstead Ave

Depew, NY 14043

$154,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1901 · MultiFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,124/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $1,200/mo
• Annual: $14,401/yr
• Cap rate: 15.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.20%
• DSCR: 2.48
• 1% rule: 2.02%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $600/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#408 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Depew Union Free School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #461 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $155k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 3.7% in Depew — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,124/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 854% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.