13 Blue Ridge Psge #13

Meadows of Dan, VA 24120

$227,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 975 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,193
• Tax + insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $288/mo
• Annual: $3,460/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $63,700

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $228k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $228k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.1% in Meadows of Dan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.