10501 Lake Dr

Moon Lake, FL 34654

$59,900B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,631/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $506/mo
• Annual: $6,069/yr
• Cap rate: 24.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.70%
• DSCR: 3.97
• 1% rule: 2.72%
• Cash to close: $16,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); River Ridge Middle School (math 53% / reading 49%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,107 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.